MLBJul 5, 2026, 10:05 AM

Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Over 9.5 (-110)
total · confidence 70/100
Result
Lost

Why the AI made this pick

The Baltimore Orioles and Cincinnati Reds total of 9.5 is showing negative EV on both sides. The Cincinnati Reds starter, Nick Lodolo, has a 5.05 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, and has struggled in recent starts (7 ER in 4.2 IP in one of his last 3). The park, GABP, is a hitter-friendly park with a Run Index of 112 and HR Index of 122. However, the HP Umpire Brian O'Nora has an under lean. Both bullpens are fresh. Given the conflicting signals, a lean on either side is difficult. Sized at 3u — confidence 70, conflicting signals and no clear EV. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=3533 / 51.9% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=8/20) / n=2857 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2243 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1464 / 53.2% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=548 / 49.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER / n=16 / 62.5% WR / healthy • LASOR_MLB_SERIES_DENSITY — MLB / NO_CALIBRATION_ROW_YET / n=0 / WR n/a / unproven

Result notes

Final: Baltimore Orioles 2 @ Cincinnati Reds 3 · total 5 vs 9.5

Closing line: 10

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