MLBJul 5, 2026, 10:05 AM

Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 9.5 (-110)
total · evidence score 70/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The Baltimore Orioles and Cincinnati Reds total of 9.5 is showing negative EV on both sides. The Cincinnati Reds starter, Nick Lodolo, has a 5.05 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, and has struggled in recent starts (7 ER in 4.2 IP in one of his last 3). The park, GABP, is a hitter-friendly park with a Run Index of 112 and HR Index of 122. However, the HP Umpire Brian O'Nora has an under lean. Both bullpens are fresh. Given the conflicting signals, a lean on either side is difficult. Sized at 3u — confidence 70, conflicting signals and no clear EV. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=3533 / 51.9% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=8/20) / n=2857 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2243 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1464 / 53.2% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=548 / 49.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER / n=16 / 62.5% WR / healthy • LASOR_MLB_SERIES_DENSITY — MLB / NO_CALIBRATION_ROW_YET / n=0 / WR n/a / unproven

Result notes

Final: Baltimore Orioles 2 @ Cincinnati Reds 3 · total 5 vs 9.5

Closing line: 10

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