MLBJul 5, 2026, 12:01 PM

Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 10 (-105)
total · evidence score 67/100 · 2u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The Philadelphia Phillies and Kansas City Royals total of 10 is showing negative EV for the Over. The HP Umpire, Roberto Ortiz, has an over lean with 9.9 R/g (+0.81 vs lg, n=15). The Philadelphia Phillies starter, Aaron Nola, has a 6.04 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, and the Kansas City Royals starter, Luinder Avila, has a 5.40 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Both are high for starting pitchers. Therefore, I will lean over. Sized at 2u — confidence 67, minor positive signals, no strong EV. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER / n=3533 / 51.9% WR / healthy • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=3533 / 51.9% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=8/20) / n=2857 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=548 / 49.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TEAM_AGE_OLD_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=326 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=25 / 44.0% WR / unproven • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=16 / 62.5% WR / healthy / context-derived

Result notes

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 2 @ Kansas City Royals 5 · total 7 vs 10

Closing line: 10

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