MLBJul 5, 2026, 12:31 PM

Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 7.5 (-110)
total · evidence score 83/100 · 3u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

Numbers-first live pick: side locked by best positive market edge before AI narration. EV unavailable; using market-dislocation signals. Best available price -110 @ betrivers. Pinnacle fair: Over 8 +109 (47.9%) / Under 8 -109 (52.1%). EV board: Over 8: -4.1% (best +100 @ bovada) | Under 8: -4.6% (best -120 @ bovada). Sharp/public: SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_TOTAL: Pinnacle 8 vs public median 7.5 on Over (Δ+0.5pt — sharps disagree with public longer) || SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_TOTAL: Pinnacle 8 vs public median 7.5 on Under (Δ+0.5pt — sharps disagree with public longer). Market signals: STEAM: 6 books range 0.5pts (median 7.5) || PRICE_DISPERSION: 220c spread across US books (volatility, not edge). [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=3533 / 51.9% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=8/20) / n=2857 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2243 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1464 / 53.2% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=16 / 62.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=84 / 52.4% WR / unproven • STEAM_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=65 / 55.4% WR / unproven • +17 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Detroit Tigers 6 @ Texas Rangers 3 · total 9 vs 7.5

Closing line: 7.5

Available related receipts

See available MLB receipts →

Historical audit coverage

Reviewed original-publication snapshots and visible correction history are available only when they reconcile to a verified archive manifest.

Open the audited historical archive →

Review the current product and featured-pick availability.

View current product →