MLBJul 5, 2026, 11:00 AM

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 8.5 (+100)
total · evidence score 72/100 · 3u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians total of 8.5 is showing a PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD signal, however there is a negative EV signal for the Over. The Chicago White Sox bullpen is tired with 143 pitches in the last two days. The HP Umpire, Hunter Wendelstedt, has an under lean. The Cleveland Guardians have a strong pitcher in Tanner Bibee, with a 3.69 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 102.1 IP. Given the negative EV and mixed signals, this is a lean. Sized at 3u — confidence 72, conflicting signals and no clear EV. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4878 / 48.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=3533 / 51.9% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=8/20) / n=2857 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=548 / 49.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=25 / 44.0% WR / unproven • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER / n=16 / 62.5% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=84 / 52.4% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=58 / 50.0% WR / unproven • +17 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Chicago White Sox 7 @ Cleveland Guardians 6 · total 13 vs 8.5

Closing line: 8

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