MLBJul 5, 2026, 11:00 AM

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+155)
spread · evidence score 80/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The Cleveland Guardians -1.5 at +155 has a -2.5% EV vs Pinnacle. The White Sox' bullpen is tired (143 pitches, 7.3 IP in last 2d), which favors the Guardians. The Guardians' starter, Tanner Bibee, has a 3.69 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 102.1 IP, while the White Sox' starter, Chris Murphy, has a 3.79 ERA and 1.37 WHIP across 19.0 IP, indicating a small sample size. The HP Umpire, Hunter Wendelstedt, has an under lean (8.6 R/g). The Guardians offense vs LHP is weak (0.651 OPS). The line has stalled, which is a concern. Sized at 1u — due to model's borderline confidence and conflicting signals. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4878 / 48.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4754 / 51.6% WR / healthy • TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY / n=4754 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=8/20) / n=2857 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy • TRAVEL_GETAWAY_DAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=6/20) / n=1800 / 51.9% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=548 / 49.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_SOFT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=75 / 49.3% WR / unproven • +10 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Chicago White Sox 7 @ Cleveland Guardians 6 · margin -1 vs -1.5

Closing line: -1.5

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