MLBJul 5, 2026, 12:31 PM

Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+145)
spread · confidence 75/100
Result
Won

Why the AI made this pick

The Detroit Tigers -1.5 at +145 has a -0.5% EV vs Pinnacle, which is not strong. The Rangers' starter, Kumar Rocker, has a 3.83 ERA and 1.34 WHIP across 80.0 IP, while the Tigers' starter, Casey Mize, has a 2.63 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across 65.0 IP. The HP Umpire, John Tumpane, has an under lean (8.3 R/g). The Tigers L10 are 5-5 with 5.1 RS/g and 3.9 RA/g. The line has stalled, which is a concern. Sized at 1u — due to model's borderline confidence and conflicting signals. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=8/20) / n=2857 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2243 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1464 / 53.2% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • CLV_DRIFT_BIG_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=36 / 45.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=25 / 44.0% WR / unproven • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER / n=16 / 62.5% WR / healthy • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=77 / 48.0% WR / unproven • +4 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Detroit Tigers 6 @ Texas Rangers 3 · margin +3 vs -1.5

Closing line: -1.5

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