MLBJul 5, 2026, 12:31 PM

Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Under 9 (-110)
total · confidence 78/100
Result
Won

Why the AI made this pick

The Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros total of 9 is showing negative EV for the under. The Houston Astros bullpen is tired with 142 pitches and 8.0 IP in the last two days. The forecast of 95 degrees, while hot, is in a dome. The Tampa Bay Rays have a mild motivation from playoff stakes. Given the conflicting signals and negative EV, this will be a lean under. Sized at 3u — confidence 78, minor signals, no strong EV. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4878 / 48.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=8/20) / n=2857 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2243 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=548 / 49.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=25 / 44.0% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=84 / 52.4% WR / unproven • +19 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Tampa Bay Rays 0 @ Houston Astros 2 · total 2 vs 9

Closing line: 9

Related picks

See all MLB picks →

No messages yet — be the first.

Sign in to join the chat.

Want the next pick before it locks?

Get live AI picks →