MLBJul 5, 2026, 12:31 PM

Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 9 (-110)
total · evidence score 78/100 · 3u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

The Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros total of 9 is showing negative EV for the under. The Houston Astros bullpen is tired with 142 pitches and 8.0 IP in the last two days. The forecast of 95 degrees, while hot, is in a dome. The Tampa Bay Rays have a mild motivation from playoff stakes. Given the conflicting signals and negative EV, this will be a lean under. Sized at 3u — confidence 78, minor signals, no strong EV. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4878 / 48.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=8/20) / n=2857 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2243 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=548 / 49.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=25 / 44.0% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=84 / 52.4% WR / unproven • +19 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Tampa Bay Rays 0 @ Houston Astros 2 · total 2 vs 9

Closing line: 9

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