MLBJul 5, 2026, 12:01 PM

Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Philadelphia Phillies (-136)
moneyline · evidence score 73/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The Philadelphia Phillies moneyline at -136 carries a negative EV of -2.8% against the Pinnacle fair line. The Phillies have a strong L10 record of 7-3 with 5.6 RS/g and 4.4 RA/g, significantly better than the Royals' 2-8 L10 with 3.1 RS/g and 7.6 RA/g, indicating a strong recent form advantage. Both bullpens are fresh. While the Phillies SP Aaron Nola (ERA 6.04) has struggled recently, so has the Royals SP Luinder Avila (ERA 5.40 in fewer IP). The Phillies also have a more seasoned core with a weighted age of 30.08. The home plate umpire, Roberto Ortiz, has an over lean (9.9 R/g, +0.81 vs league average). The LINE_VELOCITY shows the Phillies' price has stalled and gone Δ-3c, while the Royals' price has stalled and gone Δ+2c. Sized at 3u — confidence 73, driven by the Phillies' strong recent form, despite slight negative EV and concerning SP recent performance. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER / n=3533 / 51.9% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=8/20) / n=2857 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=548 / 49.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TEAM_AGE_OLD_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=326 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=77 / 48.0% WR / unproven • STEAM_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=65 / 55.4% WR / unproven • STEAM_STALLED — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=57 / 54.4% WR / unproven • LINE_VELOCITY_WITH — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=84 / 51.8% WR / unproven • +2 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 2 @ Kansas City Royals 5

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