MLBJul 11, 2026, 1:11 PM

Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 7.5 (-120)
total · evidence score 66/100 · 2u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The public is heavily betting the Under, leading to PUBLIC_BIAS_UNDER_OVERLOAD and books shading toward the Over. This provides an edge to ride the Over given the public sentiment. The HP Ump Chad Whitson has an 'under lean' with 0.85 runs below league average, conflicting with the public fade on the under. However, the market signal of public bias outweighs the umpire tendency in this scenario. Sized at 2u — confidence 66, riding the public total shade, but with conflicting umpire signal. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=212 / 50.0% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=58 / 56.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=111 / 56.0% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_RIDE — MLB / ALL/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=90 / 61.4% WR / healthy • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=78 / 55.8% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_PRIMETIME_FADE — MLB / ALL/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=75 / 60.0% WR / healthy • +17 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Cleveland Guardians 4 @ Miami Marlins 1 · total 5 vs 7.5

Closing line: 7.5

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