MLBSep 12, 2026, 11:20 AM

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 9 (-110)
total · evidence score 83/100 · 2u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 9.5% exact-price projected EV and a 5.5-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The 5.1% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 4.05-4.36 (8.42 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Pittsburgh Pirates 3 @ Chicago Cubs 4 · total 7 vs 9

Closing line: 9.5

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Historical audit coverage

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