MLBSep 12, 2026, 1:05 PM

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 7.5 (+100)
total · evidence score 83/100 · 2u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 9.4% exact-price projected EV and a 4.7-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The 3.9% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 4.14-3.23 (7.37 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: San Diego Padres 7 @ San Francisco Giants 6 · total 13 vs 7.5

Closing line: 8

Available related receipts

See available MLB receipts →

Historical audit coverage

Reviewed original-publication snapshots and visible correction history are available only when they reconcile to a verified archive manifest.

Open the audited historical archive →

Review the current product and featured-pick availability.

View current product →