Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.5% exact-price projected EV and a 2.8-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The 0.6% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 4.03-3.94 (7.97 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Houston Astros 2 @ Tampa Bay Rays 3 · margin -1 vs 1.5

Available related receipts

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• MLB

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