MLBJul 2, 2026, 9:36 AM

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Over 10.5 (-104)
total · confidence 67/100
Result
Lost

Why the AI made this pick

This pick hinges on a combination of subpar starting pitching in a hitter-friendly park. The Pirates' Jared Jones brings a 5.76 ERA and has been inconsistent, while the Phillies will start Alan Rangel (4.50 ERA). This matchup is taking place at Citizens Bank Park, which has a 110 HR index, favoring power hitters. Furthermore, the Pirates' offense has been effective against right-handed pitching, posting a strong .783 OPS. Both teams have also been scoring well recently, with the Pirates averaging 6.3 RS/g and the Phillies 6.4 RS/g in their last 10 games. Even with a high total of 10.5, the conditions are ripe for a high-scoring affair. Sized at 2u — confidence 67, supported by a clear run environment edge but dragged down by low data confidence. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=3533 / 53.9% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2857 / 51.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER / n=1464 / 53.2% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=548 / 49.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=215 / 48.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=180 / 51.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=16 / 75.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=147 / 44.4% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_BAT_HAND_SPLIT_EDGE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=9 / 62.5% WR / unproven

Result notes

Final: Pittsburgh Pirates 6 @ Philadelphia Phillies 1 · total 7 vs 10.5 · median-grade @-104 → -2.00u

Closing line: 10.5

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