MLBJul 2, 2026, 3:41 PM

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Cleveland Guardians (-106)
moneyline · evidence score 67/100 · 2u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

The Guardians moneyline has a -1.5% EV to Pinnacle's fair line of -103. The Guardians starting pitcher, Slade Cecconi, has a better WHIP (1.36 vs 1.18) and HR/9 (1.20 vs 0.58) than Davis Martin for the White Sox. The White Sox also have a slightly better L10 record (6-4 vs 4-6) and a better L10 RS/g (6.1 vs 3.6), but the Guardians have a better L10 RA/g (3.8 vs 3.3). The Guardians' season ERA is better at 3.37 vs 4.62. The LINE_VELOCITY shows a significant drop in price for the Guardians since opening, which points towards market interest in them. Sized at 1u — moderate confidence based on value against Pinnacle, starter consistency, and line movement. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=215 / 48.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=180 / 51.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=56 / 42.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • LINE_VELOCITY_WITH — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=63 / 48.4% WR / unproven

Result notes

Final: Chicago White Sox 5 @ Cleveland Guardians 6

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