MLBJul 2, 2026, 4:16 PM

St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+155)
spread · evidence score 81/100 · 3u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

Numbers-first live pick: side locked by best positive market edge before AI narration. EV unavailable; using market-dislocation signals. Best available price +155 @ FanDuel. Pinnacle fair: St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 -190 (65.5%) / Atlanta Braves -1.5 +190 (34.5%). EV board: St. Louis Cardinals +1.5: -3.4% (best -210 @ Bovada) | Atlanta Braves -1.5: -5% (best +175 @ Bovada). Sharp/public: SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_SPREAD: Pinnacle -1.5 vs public median 1.5 on Atlanta Braves (Δ-3pt — sharps disagree with public shorter) || SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_SPREAD: Pinnacle 1.5 vs public median -1.5 on St. Louis Cardinals (Δ+3pt — sharps disagree with public longer). Market signals: STEAM: 5 books range 3pts (median 1.5) || BOOK_DISAGREEMENT_HIGH: line spread 3pts across US books || PRICE_DISPERSION: 365c spread across US books (volatility, not edge). [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2243 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1800 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • TEAM_AGE_YOUNG_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=568 / 51.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TEAM_AGE_OLD_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=325 / 57.9% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=215 / 48.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=180 / 51.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_SOFT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=75 / 49.3% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=62 / 50.0% WR / unproven • STEAM_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=46 / 56.5% WR / unproven • +16 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: St. Louis Cardinals 11 @ Atlanta Braves 5 · margin +6 vs -1.5

Closing line: 1.5

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