MLBJul 2, 2026, 3:41 PM

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 8.5 (-110)
total · evidence score 67/100 · 2u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

This pick leans on the combination of a pitcher-friendly park and a struggling offense. The game is at Progressive Field, which suppresses scoring with a 95 Run Index and 92 HR Index. The Guardians' offense has been cold, averaging just 3.6 runs per game in their last 10 and posting a meek .686 OPS against right-handed pitching. While the White Sox bats are hot, Cleveland's starter Slade Cecconi has been excellent in his last three starts, allowing only three earned runs over 17.2 innings. This combination of factors points toward a lower-scoring game than the 8.5 total suggests. Sized at 2u — confidence 67, with a good park-and-offense combination but held back by low data confidence. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER / n=1464 / 53.2% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=215 / 48.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=180 / 51.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=25 / 44.0% WR / unproven • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=147 / 44.4% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_SP_L3_EDGE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=43 / 44.2% WR / unproven

Result notes

Final: Chicago White Sox 5 @ Cleveland Guardians 6 · total 11 vs 8.5

Closing line: 8.5

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