MLBJul 4, 2026, 5:11 PM

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Colorado Rockies (+118)
moneyline · evidence score 70/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The Colorado Rockies are +118 against a Pinnacle fair line of +119 with a -0.5% EV. While the Giants have a better season record, the Rockies' L10 RS/g is 7.3, significantly higher than the Giants' 3.5. This suggests the Rockies' offense is currently performing well. The Rockies' starting pitcher, Tanner Gordon, has a high ERA (6.69) but the Giants' EV is -3.9%. Coors Field is a hitter-friendly park (Run 116, HR 117), which could favor a hot offense like the Rockies. The Giants are identified as having a mild LASOR getaway day, and the Rockies also have a getaway day and played 5 games in 5 days, so fatigue could be a factor for both. Given the offensive advantage and park factor, the Rockies have an edge here. Sized at 1u — moderate confidence based on the Rockies' recent offensive performance, park factor supporting offense, and a relatively low EV for the opposing side. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=16/20) / n=2243 / 51.7% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER / n=1464 / 53.2% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_COORS_HANGOVER_VISITOR_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=62 / 53.2% WR / unproven / context-derived

Result notes

Final: San Francisco Giants 6 @ Colorado Rockies 4

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