Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Published by Slam Wager
Published pick reasoning
5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 47.1% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 42.7% (24.1-point probability edge) versus a 5.5% release floor. Projected score: 35.17-32.54 (67.71 total). Model: football_possession_sim_v2 football-possession-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: 50,000 seeded NFL possession simulations with down-and-distance, clock, score state, play calling, sacks, turnovers, penalties, fourth downs, field goals, punts, overtime and player allocation inside one coherent game world. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.
Result notes
Final: Dallas Cowboys 20 @ New York Giants 28 · total 48 vs 47.5
Closing line: 48
Available related receipts
Historical audit coverage
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