San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
Published by Slam Wager
Published pick reasoning
5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 54.5% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 50.2% (27.9-point probability edge) versus a 5.5% release floor. Projected score: 35.24-38.40 (73.64 total). Model: football_possession_sim_v2 football-possession-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: 50,000 seeded NFL possession simulations with down-and-distance, clock, score state, play calling, sacks, turnovers, penalties, fourth downs, field goals, punts, overtime and player allocation inside one coherent game world. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.
Result notes
Final: San Francisco 49ers 27 @ Los Angeles Rams 7 · total 34 vs 48.5
Closing line: 47.5
Available related receipts
Historical audit coverage
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