Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Published by Slam Wager
Published pick reasoning
5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 33.4% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 29.0% (17.8-point probability edge) versus a 5.5% release floor. Projected score: 17.01-14.43 (31.44 total). Model: football_possession_sim_v2 football-possession-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: 50,000 seeded NFL possession simulations with down-and-distance, clock, score state, play calling, sacks, turnovers, penalties, fourth downs, field goals, punts, overtime and player allocation inside one coherent game world. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.
Result notes
Final: Denver Broncos 10 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31 · total 41 vs 43
Closing line: 43
Available related receipts
Historical audit coverage
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