MLB
loss
7/11/2026

Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins: Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 hits (-106) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

Recap of our MLB AI player_prop pick on Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins. The play (Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 hits at -106, 1★ confidence) lost.

Matchup
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins
Pick
Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 hits
Odds
-106
Confidence
★☆☆☆☆

Why we made this MLB player_prop pick

Judgment prop — picked by signal angles MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER + MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER. Median retail -106 across 3 books (implied 51.5%); no Pinnacle pair on this exact line (unanchored). PROJ: 43.6% Under — 0.182/PA × 4.1 PA (slot 6) → mean 0.75; SP Eury Pérez allows -14% vs league (no anchor to compare). [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=212 / 50.0% WR / toxic_fadeable

How the Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins pick lost

Gabriel Arias finished with 3 (H) vs line 0.5

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