MLBJul 11, 2026, 6:10 PM

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Under 9 (-115)
total · confidence 61/100
Result
Lost

Why the AI made this pick

The pick for Under 9 is driven by the pitching matchup and market signals. Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers has been excellent (2.49 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 0.95 HR/9) with strong recent form (0 ER, 2 ER, 3 ER in last three starts). While Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks has a higher ERA (4.84), Yamamoto's dominance is a significant factor. The Dodgers' bullpen is TIRED, but the strong starting pitching performance should mitigate some of that. The PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD suggests the public is leaning towards the Over, making the Under a contrarian play with potential value. The line has also moved slightly towards the Under since opening. The Dodgers are a 'must-win' team, which can influence pitching decisions and focus on limiting runs. Sized at 1u — confidence 61, driven by strong pitching and public fade, but with some price dispersion and the Dodgers' 'must-win' narrative adding a touch of uncertainty. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1876 / 48.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=783 / 52.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=783 / 54.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=738 / 54.7% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=111 / 56.0% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_RIDE — MLB / ALL/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=90 / 61.4% WR / healthy • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=83 / 43.8% WR / toxic_fadeable • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=78 / 55.8% WR / unproven • +20 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Arizona Diamondbacks 9 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 2 · total 11 vs 9

Closing line: 8.5

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