MLBJul 11, 2026, 5:41 PM

Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 8 (-110)
total · evidence score 62/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The primary drivers for this under are the venue and the umpire. Petco Park is a pitcher-friendly environment (92 run index), and home plate umpire Adam Hamari has a documented lean to the under (8.7 R/g, -0.46 vs league average), a signal with a strong 58.3% historical win rate. Toronto's starter, Trey Yesavage, is in excellent form with a 1.54 ERA over his last three starts. The main risk is the catastrophic recent performance of Padres starter Walker Buehler (10.67 ERA L3) and the Padres' tired bullpen (146 pitches L2d). However, the combination of a pitcher's park, an under umpire, lackluster hitting splits vs RHP for both teams, and one dominant starter should be enough to suppress the total score. Sized at 1u — confidence is held in check by the significant conflict from Buehler's volatility and the tired Padres bullpen. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1876 / 48.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=783 / 52.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=783 / 54.1% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=738 / 54.7% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER / n=58 / 56.0% WR / healthy • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=58 / 56.0% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME_TOTAL / n=78 / 55.8% WR / unproven • +7 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Toronto Blue Jays 7 @ San Diego Padres 8 · total 15 vs 8

Closing line: 8

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