Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 6.4% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (17.6% raw projected EV) and a 8.6-point probability edge versus a 4.2% release floor. The public tier follows that conservative EV after all modeled lineup and calibration uncertainty. Projected score: 4.81-3.70 (8.51 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Cincinnati Reds 2 @ Washington Nationals 8

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