Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.5% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (10.9% raw projected EV) and a 5.2-point probability edge versus a 4.4% release floor. The public tier follows that conservative EV after all modeled lineup and calibration uncertainty. Projected score: 4.03-3.35 (7.38 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Houston Astros 2 @ San Diego Padres 3

Available related receipts

• MLB

  Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres

  Under 8.5 8.5 · 8/8/2026
  win
• MLB

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• MLB

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  Under 8.5 8.5 · 8/7/2026
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  Under 8.5 8.5 · 8/7/2026
  loss