Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 9.7% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (19.9% raw projected EV) and a 10.1-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. Public strength is capped at 79/1u while the lineup is unconfirmed and calibration is inactive. Projected score: 4.16-3.37 (7.53 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Houston Astros 2 @ San Diego Padres 3 · total 5 vs 8.5

Available related receipts

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