MLBJul 10, 2026, 7:16 PM

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+146)
spread · evidence score 61/100 · 1u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The San Francisco Giants -1.5 at +146 offers a positive EV of 0.7% against the Pinnacle fair line of +148. Robbie Ray of the Giants has a much stronger season ERA (3.45 vs 6.95) and WHIP (1.23 vs 1.59) than Tanner Gordon of the Rockies. The Giants' batting OPS against RHP (0.740) is also stronger than the Rockies' against LHP (0.704). The Rockies are coming off a B2B with a mild fatigue tag. The Giants have a pitcher park which could limit runs. Sized at 1u — Strong pitching mismatch and mild fatigue for the opponent. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1648 / 51.5% WR / healthy • TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY / n=1648 / 51.5% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • TRAVEL_GETAWAY_DAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 52.3% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=738 / 54.7% WR / healthy • MLB_SP_HOT_FORM — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=636 / 52.1% WR / healthy • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • TRAVEL_HOME_AFTER_LONG_TRIP_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=375 / 48.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • +13 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Colorado Rockies 4 @ San Francisco Giants 3 · margin -1 vs -1.5

Closing line: -1.5

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