MLBJul 10, 2026, 7:16 PM

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 8 (-110)
total · evidence score 70/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The model indicates a slight edge on the OVER with a -1.5% EV vs Pinnacle fair, implying value. The public is heavily biased towards the UNDER, indicated by PUBLIC_BIAS_UNDER_OVERLOAD, suggesting books are shading prices towards the OVER. This matchup features Tanner Gordon, who has struggled in his last three starts with ERAs of 5.00, 5.00, and 12.00, suggesting vulnerability. While Robbie Ray is a strong pitcher, the Rockies have a decent OPS of 0.704 against left-handed pitchers. The Giants have a 0.740 OPS against right-handed pitchers, which also leans to the OVER. The park factors (Run 88, HR 85) are not extreme. Both bullpens are fresh. Sized at 3u — confidence 70, leaning to UNDER fade. Line is stable, no urgency. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=738 / 54.7% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=134 / 53.8% WR / healthy • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=108 / 50.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • PUBLIC_CONTRARIAN_EV — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=89 / 55.1% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_ML_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=88 / 62.5% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=78 / 55.1% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_RIDE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=93 / 56.0% WR / unproven • +15 more signal tag(s)

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Bad Beat

Final total 7 — landed 1 point from the 8 line.

Result notes

Final: Colorado Rockies 4 @ San Francisco Giants 3 · total 7 vs 8

Closing line: 8.5

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