MLBJul 11, 2026, 1:16 PM

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Over 9 (-110)
total · confidence 68/100
Result
Won

Why the AI made this pick

The primary signal for this pick is the home plate umpire, Malachi Moore, who has a clear over lean, averaging 10.6 runs per game (+1.41 vs league average). Additionally, the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen is GASSED, having thrown 285 pitches in the last two days, suggesting vulnerability late in the game. While the Brewers' starter, Shane Drohan, has a good ERA (2.97), the Pirates' Chandler has a higher ERA (4.82) and BB/9 (5.22). The Brewers also have stakes as they are in the hunt and a win is critical which gives a slight boost. Sized at 2u — confidence 68, primarily due to the umpire's tendency and the gassed Pirates' bullpen. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1876 / 48.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_TEAM_BIG_VS_RHP_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=243 / 51.5% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=212 / 50.0% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_GASSED_OPP — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=113 / 51.8% WR / toxic_fadeable • +8 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Milwaukee Brewers 6 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 7 · total 13 vs 9

Closing line: 7

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