Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 13.3% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 6.6% (7.4-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% release floor. Projected score: 4.90-3.70 (8.59 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 8 @ Baltimore Orioles 0

Available related receipts

• MLB

  Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

  Kyle Bradish Over 5.5 H allowed 5.5 · 8/2/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

  Baltimore Orioles · 8/1/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

  Shane Baz Under 17.5 Outs 17.5 · 8/1/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

  Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 total bases 1.5 · 7/31/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

  Boston Red Sox +1.5 1.5 · 8/2/2026
  win
• MLB

  Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

  Boston Red Sox · 8/2/2026
  win